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To Dare More Boldly : The Audacious Story of Political Risk.

By: Hulsman, John C.
Material type: TextTextSeries: eBooks on Demand.Publisher: Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2018Copyright date: ©2018Description: 1 online resource (341 pages).Content type: text Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9781400889440.Genre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: To Dare More Boldly : The Audacious Story of Political RiskDDC classification: 320.01 LOC classification: D32 | .H857 2018Online resources: Click here to view this ebook.
Contents:
Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- CONTENTS -- CHAPTER ONE 480 BC: Introduction—The First Political Risk Analysts: The Pythia of Delphi -- The Pythia as the World’s First Political Risk Consultant -- The Pythia Masters the Persians -- The Merits of History -- A Potted History of the Modern Political Risk Business -- Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and Modern Geopolitical Risk -- Brian Wilson and Greek Attributes -- Back to the Past of the Pythia’s Lair to Glean the Future of Geopolitical Risk Analysis -- CHAPTER TWO 31 AD: We Are the Risk -- The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire -- Edward Gibbon and How Political Risk Analysts Think -- The Rise of Sejanus and the Fall of the Roman Empire -- An Avoidable Tragedy in France and the Root Cause of Europe’s Decline -- Europe’s Ticking Demographic Time Bomb -- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Germany’s Distrust of Success -- The Sudden End of Europe’s Sunny Way of Life -- The Political Naïveté of Lying about Europe’s Gloomy Future -- Rome Dies from Within -- CHAPTER THREE 1192 AD: Gaming Out Lunatics -- The Assassins and the Old Man of the Mountain -- The Old Man of the Mountain Demonstrates What Power Actually Is -- Rashid ad-Din Sinan and the Benefits of Being Seen as Crazy -- The Elusive Madness of Charles Manson -- The Method of ISIS’s Madness -- Sinan Bests Saladin -- Sinan Bests the Crusaders -- CHAPTER FOUR 1503 AD: Gaming Out Chess Players -- Machiavelli, Cesare Borgia, and Pope Julius II -- Machiavelli Attempts a Comeback -- Machiavelli Backs the Wrong Horse -- Cesare Borgia’s Overrated Bond Villain Luster -- Washington and Hamilton as Chess Players -- Washington’s Farewell Address as Geopolitical Strategy -- Julius Runs Rings around Borgia -- The Prince with Julius as Hero -- The Analytical Riches That Come from Spotting Chess Players.
CHAPTER FIVE 1776: Everything to Play For -- John Adams and Game-Changers -- Adams Sees the Future, Jefferson Buys Gloves -- The Political Miracle of the Fourth of July -- Churchill Rejoices over Pearl Harbor -- Hitler’s Fatal Error -- The Declaration of Independence as Improbable Game-Changer -- The Limits to Even Adams’s Sagacity -- CHAPTER SIX 1797: Getting to Goldilocks -- Napoleon and the Venetian Republic -- The Dangers of Analytical Overreaction -- Venice’s Slow Castration -- Manin Goes Out with a Whimper -- Napoleon’s France as a Country on Military Steroids -- Bonaparte’s Predictable Fall as a Leader of a Revolutionary Power -- The Benefits of Balance -- CHAPTER SEVEN 1863: The Losing Gambler Syndrome -- Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg -- Why Casino Magnates Get Rich: Gettysburg and Vietnam -- Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain Saves the Union -- The United States Tragically Doubles Down in Vietnam -- Lee Fatally Goes for Broke with Pickett’s Charge -- The Losing Gambler Syndrome as Beguiling Analytical Trap -- CHAPTER EIGHT 1895: Knowing Your Country’s Place in the World -- Lord Salisbury Saves the British Empire -- The Analytical Imperative of Seeing the World as It Is -- Salisbury’s Intellectual Courage in Confronting His Changing World -- The Merits of Off-shore Balancing -- The Meiji Restoration Saves Japan -- The Genrō Face the World -- Salisbury Finesses America over the Venezuelan Crisis -- Salisbury Saves His Country, Long after His Death -- CHAPTER NINE 1898–1912: The Promised Land Fallacy -- Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy -- The Dangerous Mirage of the Promised Land Fallacy -- Von Tirpitz Recklessly Challenges British Naval Dominance -- Khrushchev and the Limits of Brinkmanship -- Khrushchev’s Ill-Fated “Wars of National Liberation” Strategy -- The Haldane Mission as the End of Tirpitz’s Promised Land.
CHAPTER TEN 1970: Knowing the Nature of the World You Live In -- Or the Trials and Tribulations of George Harrison -- The Imperative of Understanding Time in the Analytical Equation -- The Beatles’ System Falls Stunningly Apart -- The Rise of George Harrison -- The Rolling Stones Regroup -- The Fall of Brian Jones -- The Beatles as a Frightening Metaphor for Today’s World -- How the West Can Avoid the Beatles’ Fate -- The Analytical Imperative to Closely Track Changes in Systems -- CHAPTER ELEVEN 1978: The Butterfly Effect in Political Risk -- Or Deng Xiaoping and the Perils of a Drunken Sea Captain -- Mastering Real-World Bolts from the Blue -- Deng Xiaoping Crafts China’s Successful Mercantilist Foreign Policy -- Deng Survives Mao and Transforms China -- Macmillan Salvages Britain’s Place in the World -- The Present Tinderbox in the Waters Surrounding China -- Today’s Asia as 1914 -- History Is Never Finished -- CHAPTER TWELVE Conclusion: Back to the Pythia’s Lair -- Mastering Geopolitical Risk -- Can the Future Be Foretold? -- Kenneth Waltz and the Systemic Realism Underlying Geopolitical Risk Analysis -- “Know Thyself” as the Base of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- “Nothing in Excess” as a Branch of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- “Make a Pledge and Mischief Is Nigh” as a Branch of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- The End of the Pythia and the Beginning of Political Risk Analysis -- Acknowledgments -- Bibliography -- Index.
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Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- CONTENTS -- CHAPTER ONE 480 BC: Introduction—The First Political Risk Analysts: The Pythia of Delphi -- The Pythia as the World’s First Political Risk Consultant -- The Pythia Masters the Persians -- The Merits of History -- A Potted History of the Modern Political Risk Business -- Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and Modern Geopolitical Risk -- Brian Wilson and Greek Attributes -- Back to the Past of the Pythia’s Lair to Glean the Future of Geopolitical Risk Analysis -- CHAPTER TWO 31 AD: We Are the Risk -- The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire -- Edward Gibbon and How Political Risk Analysts Think -- The Rise of Sejanus and the Fall of the Roman Empire -- An Avoidable Tragedy in France and the Root Cause of Europe’s Decline -- Europe’s Ticking Demographic Time Bomb -- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Germany’s Distrust of Success -- The Sudden End of Europe’s Sunny Way of Life -- The Political Naïveté of Lying about Europe’s Gloomy Future -- Rome Dies from Within -- CHAPTER THREE 1192 AD: Gaming Out Lunatics -- The Assassins and the Old Man of the Mountain -- The Old Man of the Mountain Demonstrates What Power Actually Is -- Rashid ad-Din Sinan and the Benefits of Being Seen as Crazy -- The Elusive Madness of Charles Manson -- The Method of ISIS’s Madness -- Sinan Bests Saladin -- Sinan Bests the Crusaders -- CHAPTER FOUR 1503 AD: Gaming Out Chess Players -- Machiavelli, Cesare Borgia, and Pope Julius II -- Machiavelli Attempts a Comeback -- Machiavelli Backs the Wrong Horse -- Cesare Borgia’s Overrated Bond Villain Luster -- Washington and Hamilton as Chess Players -- Washington’s Farewell Address as Geopolitical Strategy -- Julius Runs Rings around Borgia -- The Prince with Julius as Hero -- The Analytical Riches That Come from Spotting Chess Players.

CHAPTER FIVE 1776: Everything to Play For -- John Adams and Game-Changers -- Adams Sees the Future, Jefferson Buys Gloves -- The Political Miracle of the Fourth of July -- Churchill Rejoices over Pearl Harbor -- Hitler’s Fatal Error -- The Declaration of Independence as Improbable Game-Changer -- The Limits to Even Adams’s Sagacity -- CHAPTER SIX 1797: Getting to Goldilocks -- Napoleon and the Venetian Republic -- The Dangers of Analytical Overreaction -- Venice’s Slow Castration -- Manin Goes Out with a Whimper -- Napoleon’s France as a Country on Military Steroids -- Bonaparte’s Predictable Fall as a Leader of a Revolutionary Power -- The Benefits of Balance -- CHAPTER SEVEN 1863: The Losing Gambler Syndrome -- Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg -- Why Casino Magnates Get Rich: Gettysburg and Vietnam -- Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain Saves the Union -- The United States Tragically Doubles Down in Vietnam -- Lee Fatally Goes for Broke with Pickett’s Charge -- The Losing Gambler Syndrome as Beguiling Analytical Trap -- CHAPTER EIGHT 1895: Knowing Your Country’s Place in the World -- Lord Salisbury Saves the British Empire -- The Analytical Imperative of Seeing the World as It Is -- Salisbury’s Intellectual Courage in Confronting His Changing World -- The Merits of Off-shore Balancing -- The Meiji Restoration Saves Japan -- The Genrō Face the World -- Salisbury Finesses America over the Venezuelan Crisis -- Salisbury Saves His Country, Long after His Death -- CHAPTER NINE 1898–1912: The Promised Land Fallacy -- Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy -- The Dangerous Mirage of the Promised Land Fallacy -- Von Tirpitz Recklessly Challenges British Naval Dominance -- Khrushchev and the Limits of Brinkmanship -- Khrushchev’s Ill-Fated “Wars of National Liberation” Strategy -- The Haldane Mission as the End of Tirpitz’s Promised Land.

CHAPTER TEN 1970: Knowing the Nature of the World You Live In -- Or the Trials and Tribulations of George Harrison -- The Imperative of Understanding Time in the Analytical Equation -- The Beatles’ System Falls Stunningly Apart -- The Rise of George Harrison -- The Rolling Stones Regroup -- The Fall of Brian Jones -- The Beatles as a Frightening Metaphor for Today’s World -- How the West Can Avoid the Beatles’ Fate -- The Analytical Imperative to Closely Track Changes in Systems -- CHAPTER ELEVEN 1978: The Butterfly Effect in Political Risk -- Or Deng Xiaoping and the Perils of a Drunken Sea Captain -- Mastering Real-World Bolts from the Blue -- Deng Xiaoping Crafts China’s Successful Mercantilist Foreign Policy -- Deng Survives Mao and Transforms China -- Macmillan Salvages Britain’s Place in the World -- The Present Tinderbox in the Waters Surrounding China -- Today’s Asia as 1914 -- History Is Never Finished -- CHAPTER TWELVE Conclusion: Back to the Pythia’s Lair -- Mastering Geopolitical Risk -- Can the Future Be Foretold? -- Kenneth Waltz and the Systemic Realism Underlying Geopolitical Risk Analysis -- “Know Thyself” as the Base of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- “Nothing in Excess” as a Branch of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- “Make a Pledge and Mischief Is Nigh” as a Branch of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology -- The End of the Pythia and the Beginning of Political Risk Analysis -- Acknowledgments -- Bibliography -- Index.

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Reviews provided by Syndetics

CHOICE Review

Hulsman heads John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a consulting firm on geopolitical risk. Not excessively modest, he rates his book as a "... creative and intellectual breakthrough." Hulsman posits "ten commandments of political risk." For example, "know the nature of the world you live in" and "avoid the losing gambler in Vegas syndrome." He picks examples from historical eras ranging from the fall of the Roman empire to the rise of contemporary China to illustrate when leaders have succeeded by following a commandment or failed by breaking one. Hulsman writes extraordinarily well, and the historical stories are a delight to read. The problem is that the work is weak scholarship. The "commandments" are obvious and not new, as nobody has argued, for example, that risk assessors should not "know the nature of the world you live in." The author presents no rationale for selection of either the "commandments" or the narratives that illustrate the "commandments." The narratives lack nuance. He seems unaware of the literature on biases in decision-making, which would have suggested additional commandments. Fun to read, but by no means a "creative and intellectual breakthrough." Summing Up: Not recommended. --Robert E. O'Connor, National Science Foundation

Author notes provided by Syndetics

John C. Hulsman is president of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political-risk consulting firm. His books include Ethical Realism: A Vision for America's Role in the World (Pantheon), The Godfather Doctrine: A Foreign Policy Parable (Princeton), and To Begin the World Over Again: Lawrence of Arabia from Damascus to Baghdad (St. Martin's). He lives in Milan, Italy.

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