000 03020cam a2200373 a 4500
001 ocn175218048
008 071011s2008 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 _a 2007042507
040 _aDLC
019 _a298631360
020 _a9780375424045
020 _a0375424040
029 1 _aNZ1
029 1 _aAU@
029 1 _aDEBBG
035 _a(OCoLC)175218048
050 0 0 _aQA273
_b.M63 2008
082 0 0 _a519.2
049 _aTEXA
100 1 _aMlodinow, Leonard,
245 1 4 _aThe Drunkard's walk :
_bhow randomness rules our lives /
_cLeonard Mlodinow.
250 _a1st ed.
260 _aNew York :
_bPantheon Books,
300 _axi, 252 p. :
_bill. ;
_c25 cm.
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520 _aAn irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.
505 0 _aPeering through the eyepiece of randomness : the hidden role of chance : when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- The laws of truths and half-truths : the basic principles of probability and how they are abused : why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Finding your way through a space of possibilities : a framework for thinking about random situations : from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- Tracking the pathways to success : how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters : the mathematical meaning of expectation -- The dueling laws of large and small numbers : the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe : Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- False positives and positive fallacies : how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge : mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O.J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- Measurement and the law of errors : the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements : the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- The order in chaos : how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness : or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion : why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events : can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- The drunkard's walk : why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality : Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life.
650 0 _aRandom variables
_vPopular works.
650 0 _aProbabilities
_vPopular works.
650 0 _aChance
_vPopular works.
942 _2lcc
999 _c188753